Play Well, Play Hard!  -Reading the Opponents (March 2006)

Dlr: S	IMPs
Vul: None
A Q 9 x x		10 x x
A K Q x		J 10 x x
Q x		A K x
x x		9 x x

South	West	North	East
1	X	Pass	1
3	3	Pass	4
Pass	Pass	X	All pass

Contract: 4X by E

Opening Lead: A

Partner has a nice hand. We were hoping for more diamonds and fewer clubs (say 5-4-3-1 or 4-4-4-1) but this is what partner had - and it's not bad.  Let's start by counting our tricks.  1, 4, 3, 1 (ruff high in dummy) = 9!  So all we have to do is come up with one more trick from the spade suit. Tricks 1-3:      1: A x 10 x    2: K x 9 x    3: J...       Plan the play! We were fortunate at trick three to avoid a spade shift...  Actually, we should ask ourselves,  why didn't South shift to a spade?  Either the defense had a mixup with the discard of the 9 (the opponents play upside down carding) or South had a reason for not shifting (either being void in or not wanting to shift away from an honor.) OK, before we play to trick 3 we should think more about the opponents hands and their bidding.  Here is what he know: Our side has a combined 25 HCP.  LHO opened the bidding and rebid at the 3-level (he had 7 solid and J+) and RHO made a penalty double with 0-4 HCP... Q: Who makes a penalty double with 0-4 HCP and no trump honors? A: Defenders with lots of trumps! So we must assume trumps are either 4-1 or 5-0. It also seems likely that North has the K as well.  (Would you double with 4 or 5 small trump and only the J?) Tricks 3-4: It seems reasonable to win of dummy with the Q and test trump with A - to find out how the trump are breaking.   3: J Q x x    4: A x x x First hurdle cleared, trumps are 4-1 at worst. Thus, we have no trump losers. Tricks 5-9: Now the play continues with to hand (all follow) - Ruff a club high (on which RHO discards a ) - Draw trump ending in hand (LHO discards 3 s, you discard a from dummy.) 5: x x A x    6: 9 J K x    7: Q x x x    8: x x J     9: 10 x x x This is the end position: 10xx - K - opposite AQ9x. Now we need to figure out the opponents distribution. RHO had 1, 4, and at least 3 (one discard and followed to two rounds.) So RHO distribution was either 5-4-3-1, 4-4-4-1, or 3-4-5-1. (he could be 2-4-6-1 but this is highly unlikely from the bidding and discards, so we will not consider it...)  And with each of these different distributions RHO now has 4-0-0-0, 3-0-1-0, or 2-0-2-0, respectively. We have reached an interesting end position.  We have a choice to make: double finesse the s OR try to strip the s and endplay RHO in .  We could do a probabilistic analysis of all the possible endings and determine what is the "best line of play" (which appears to be the double finesse.)  But let's think like a bridge player and not a computer for a few moments.  First, there is the double by RHO, who had only 4 small trump and nothing in the minor suits.  This should make us suspicious that RHO started with a great spade holding (KJxx would be excellent) and thus, we should want to avoid the double finesse.  Second, there is LHO bidding and defense.  We still haven't figured out why LHO didn't shift to a spade (sometimes the defenders make mistakes) but we do know that he shifted to the J instead of continuing s or playing a trump.  That shift would seem more dangerous from Jx or J10x than from J10xx(x). With diamond shortness LHO would be worried that we might need to ruff s in dummy and playing a diamond would only help us do that.  If LHO did start with  4+ then RHO started with at most 4, and we should attempt to endplay RHO.  Finally, we should think about RHO discards.  If RHO had started the hand with 3-4-5-1 distribution would their second discard (on your high club ruff) have been a ?  This would have left them with KJ or Kx in the spade suit, a dangerous position.  This is more evidence that we should avoid the double finesse.  (Note: A truely excellent defender might see this endplay coming and discard a , so one should be careful about relying on this evidence alone.)  Considering all this "Bridge Information" it seems clear to cash the high diamond and play a to the queen!  The Complete Deal. Dlr: S K J 8 x Vul: None 9 8 x x 9 8 x x 10 A Q 9 x x 10 x x A K Q x J 10 x x Q x A K x x x 9 x x 6 4 J 10 x x A K Q J x x x Thus, losing 2 and 1!  4x = 590! Auction Comments West doubled, determining that his hand was too strong to just overcall 1. Also, depending on your partnerships advancer methods, West must double in order to find the heart suit when he has 5-4 distribution. (Double is needed when you play forcing responses my advancer.)  [NOTE - You should discuss this with your regular partners to make sure you are both thinking the same way...] The 1 bid was a reasonable underbid considering the flat shape and HCP in the short shits. The 3 bid is a reasonable choice on these cards. It describes the playing strength of the South hand and it obstructs the bidding for the opponents. The problem with bidding 3 is that South's hand has very little defense vs. 4-Major and he knows partner doesn't have too many values, so 3 might help push the opponents into bidding a making game. 2 is another option for a bid with the south hand, but it tells the opponents you have lots of clubs and it does not obstruct their bidding. They will likely be able to reevaluate their hand (clubs shortness) and explore bidding game. Thus, I prefer 3 to 2, but my favorite bid of the south cards is 1N! Bidding 1N has very little risk (you are not vulnerable at IMPs) and if partner thinks you have 18-19 HCP and gets carried away bidding to 3N, at least you have 7+ trick- not too bad. Of course, if the opponents double, you can easily escape to 2. Bidding 1N does have the disadvantage of not taking up bidding space from your opponents, but it has the big advantage of not making it obvious to the opponents to up-value a singleton or void in . 3 is a reasonable bid. 4 seems right - if parner can bid 3 opposite a potential zero count then surely this hand can bid 4. X This means it's IMPs. I like my behind the likely spade honors, I like my club shortness, I like my 4 trump, and partner did open 1 and rebid 3. The opponents also sound like they are pushing to bid game (each of them has limited their hand.) Final Notes Also, this could have been the complete deal... Dlr: S K 8 x Vul: None 9 8 x x 9 8 x x x 10 A Q 9 x x 10 x x A K Q x J 10 x x Q x A K x x x 9 x x J 6 4 J 10 x A K Q J x x x If this was the case, we would have been wrong in the endgame.  But if South bid and defended the way he did holding these cards and North doubled with that pour a hand - then we will quickly win the IMPs back on the next few boards. (PS - Our final line of play also happens to win against RHO being 2-4-6-1 without the Kx of spades...)